ARID CEREALS - Poster Presentations

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Arid Cereals Conference

November 13-14, 2015
Minneapolis Convention Center

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Click a topic below to see related posters with links to PDFs and abstracts. Bold indicates presenter name.


An agricultural producer learning tool for the Columbia River Basin
K. Rajagopalan, C. Kruger, N. Potter, V. Walden, G. Yorgey
poster pdf  

A primary factor affecting risk management for agricultural producers is weather and its variability. At key decision points throughout the year, producers use the information available to them to make the best possible decisions in spite of uncertainties. Decision support tools can help producers make better informed short-term decisions about their operations, such as what to plant, when to plant and how to manage crops under variable weather conditions. Such tools can be adapted to be used as learning tools. Learning tools can help producers evaluate past operational decisions, or explore the possible future impacts of long-term strategic decisions before they are actually made. For example, drawing on historical and future climate projections, a producer might explore what the future climate normal and extremes might be, look at historical analogs for a specific scenario, or explore adaptation strategies. A prototype learning tool has been assembled for the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest US. The goals are: Visualize historical climate and crop yield data in a format that is relevant for producers. Provide access to short-term and seasonal weather forecasts that can be viewed in the context of historical data. Provide a learning tool that gives producers the flexibility to evaluate what if scenarios with respect to operational decisions made in the recent past. Provide a learning tool for producers to visualize what future climate projections look like, identify historical analogs and evaluate adaptation alternatives. Although the current prototype focuses on weather and climate-based visualizations, the framework can be expanded to include other aspects that impact producer decisions. There is also potential to integrate what we learn through on-going regional earth system modeling partnerships in the Columbia River basin to enrich the toolkit and help producers make informed decisions that prepare them to adapt to a changing climate.

A grower case study approach for transdisciplinary integration and technology transfer
K. Painter, G. Yorgey, K. Borrelli, E. Brooks, C. Kruger, N. Ward
poster pdf  

Large interdisciplinary projects face many challenges, from encouraging the necessary interaction among scientists to achieve transdisciplinary interaction, to stakeholder engagement, to farm-level technology transfer. Focusing on one grower’s farm at a time using a case study approach has provided a successful platform for these needs. Twelve growers were asked to participate in case studies for the Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH) project, based on a number of criteria, including focal practice, location of farm, applicability to others, and grower personalities. Participants were identified based on their unique practices or approaches to topics of interest. The process began with a phone call to the grower(s) to describe the process and discuss the project. Next, in-person on-farm interviews were conducted with a small team that included a videographer and two or three REACCH scientists. A scripted set of questions was prepared for each interview, although the interviews were allowed to follow their own dynamics. The final product from these interviews included a video presentation and an accompanying multi-university bulletin. The process of creating this multi-media output was lengthy. Each interview was fully transcribed for reference. The focal topic was addressed within the bulletin as a story featuring a farm, a family, and a specific place. Additional topics were addressed in a transdisciplinary manner as sidebars. For example, one sidebar provides details on hydrological monitoring, including soil electrical conductivity measurements and infrared imagery, and explains potential farm-level implications. Another sidebar provides details on fertilizer cost savings using precision ag tools. Each case study includes inserted video segments, interactive photos and about six sidebars. These case studies are popular features at regional ag conferences. The video segments pique interest in the written bulletin, and the story-line approach is educational while also accessible to diverse audiences.

Regional approaches to climate change for Inland Pacific Northwest cereal production systems
S. Eigenbrode, J. Abatzoglou, I. Burke, J. Antle, E. Brooks, S. Capalbo, P. Gessler, D. Huggins, J. Johnson-Maynard, C. Kruger, B. Lamb, S. Machado, P. Mote, K. Painter, W. Pan, S. Petrie, T. Paulitz, C. Stöckle, J. Velez, V. Walden, J.D. Wulfhorst, K. Wolf
poster pdf  

The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change and to help realize agriculture’s potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include; Develop and implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes; Contribute to climate change mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA); Work closely with stakeholders and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation; Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. The poster provides an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are being pursued to achieve them. More information about the project can be found at:

Adaption of downy brome to climate change within the small-grain production region of the Pacific Northwest
N. Lawrence, I. Burke
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Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), a common weed in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the United States, was selected to model physiological and ecological response to climate change. To phenotype downy brome phenology, ninety five downy brome and one ripgut brome (Bromus diandrus Roth.) accessions were transplanted as seedlings to common gardens located near Central Ferry, WA and Pullman, WA in November of 2012 and 2013. Panicles were collected from each replicate weekly at the onset of flowering. Seeds were removed from panicles and planted in a greenhouse to determine if seed was physiologically mature. Germination of downy brome seeds was regressed against cumulative growing degree days (GDD) (base 0 C) at time of collection using a two-parameter log-logistic model to estimate GDD required to produce mature seed. Phenology differed at each common garden location but was negatively correlated to temperature, with mature seed set occurring earlier when winter temperature was colder. Accession were clustered together into groups of similar genotypes for analysis based upon variation in single nucleotide polymorphisms. Population clusters matured, relative to each other, in the same order at each study location, suggesting a strong genetic control of phenology. As downy brome growth stage can influence the efficacy of herbicides, variation in phenology between population clusters may have management implications. Utilizing 14 climate models that adequately captured the historical characteristics of the PNW climate, the calendar date at which 50% of seeds were physiologically mature was reached from 1950-2005 was compared to the projected mean calendar date from 2031-2060. Projected date that 1,000 GDD was reached occurred 10-30 days earlier in the year. The interaction of earlier downy brome development and increased spring moisture may interfere with ability of growers to make timely applications of spring applied herbicides under future climate projections.

How temperature and water potential affect the growth of Fusarium and Rhizoctonia pathogens of wheat
I. Aujla, T. Paulitz
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Climate change is projected to shift the temperature regimes and type of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Temperature and moisture are two major factors influencing the activity of soil-borne pathogens like Fusarium culmorum, F. pseudograminearum, Rhizoctonia solani AG-8 and R. oryzae causing crown and root rots of wheat respectively, in the dryland wheat production area. This study has been undertaken to decipher the influence of temperature and water potential on the biological activities of these wheat pathogens. These pathogens were grown on potato dextrose agar, potato dextrose broth, and wheat straw or toothpicks adjusted to different osmotic and matric potentials (-0.13 to -10 MPa) with sodium chloride, potassium chloride, and polyethylene glycol (PEG-8000), and incubated at temperatures ranging from 4 to 35°C. Fusarium spp. grew optimally at 20 - 25°C and -1 to -3 MPa. A decline in growth rate was observed at lower water potentials, but growth rates were 0.07 - 3.34 mm/ day even at -9 MPa. Rhizoctonia solani AG-8 was more restricted for optimal growth at 20-25°C and -0.13 MPa. The optimal growth of R. oryzae occurred at 30°C and -0.13 MPa, but the growth rate declined less compared to AG-8 with lower water potential and temperature. R. oryzae was the only pathogen to grow at 35°C where the optimum water potential was -2 MPa, compared to -0.13 MPa at temperatures lower than 35°C. The effect of water potential was independent of salt composition. This study contributes to the knowledge of the biology and epidemiology of these pathogens, and will be used in predicting their potential distribution under future climate scenarios.

Impact of climatic factors on cereal aphid population density in the Pacific Northwest USA
E. Sadeghi, T. Davis, Y. Wu, B. Sahfii, J. Abatzoglou, S. Eigenbrode
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Direct and indirect damages from aphids to crops are limiting factors for cereal crops in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (PNW-USA) as well as worldwide. At least ten aphid species have been known to occur in cereal crops and on perennial and annual grasses within the region. The development of sustainable integrated pest management (IPM) programs are needed to inform ecosystem management approaches across spatial large scales. This study aimed to evaluate climatic factors impact on four main cereal aphids in the PNW-USA. Aphid samples were collected weekly by sweep net in 108 Regional Approaches to Climatic Change (REACCH) sites from May to July 2011-2014. Statistical analyses to evaluate correlation structure between climate variables and aphid densities were conducted using SAS (9.4). Cumulative degree (CDD) and cumulative precipitation (CP) were calculated for each of the sampling sites. Significant correlations were detected among densities of aphid species and daily climatic factors (temperature, relative humidity), CCD, and CP within each year as well as for the data pooled across all years. We found a trend of significant positive association between daily temperature and CDD with densities of individual aphid species, as well as total aphid densities. Conversely, a significant trend of negative association was observed between daily relative humidity and CP with aphid densities. The significant correlations between CDD and aphid population densities suggest that CDD can be used as a tool for cereal aphid IPM and prediction of inter-annual aphid abundances in cereal fields in the Pacific Northwest regions of USA. It will be necessary to calculate CDD in multiple ecological zones across the seasonal phenology of each aphid species to expand our current understanding.

Interactive effects of CO2 and warming on cereal leaf beetle dynamics and winter wheat yield in the Pacific Northwest USA
B. Govindan, S. Eigenbrode, C. Stöckle
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Agricultural cropping system models used as a decision support tool to predict crop growth and yield under different soil, climate and management scenarios most often ignore the crop loss due to pests. Coupling crop models with pest modules can help explain the gap between potential and actual yield. Using annual weather data for selected sites in Washington, we simulate the phenology and feeding by cereal leaf beetle (CLB), Oulema melanopus (L.) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in R 3.1 freeware and couple that output to a daily time-step winter wheat – fallow model simulated in CropSyst. Specifically, we apply linear or nonlinear models to explicitly model the temperaturedriven physiological processes of development (Sharpe–Schoolfield–Ikemoto model), mortality, and reproduction as well as feeding rates of different instars, for CLB on wheat. The model was parameterized using CLB development data from published temperature-controlled experiments, and CLB consumption data from our own experiments. We demonstrate the utility of this model to capture phenological dynamics and feeding behavior of CLB to explain the gaps in predicted crop yield under ambient (400 ppm) and elevated (950 ppm) CO2 levels in the Pacific Northwest. Cumulative yield loss by all four larval instars of CLB in the coupled model is also compared with control (no CLB) and also at levels below or far exceeding the economic threshold. Our approach could be used to evaluate production systems response to a range of global warming scenarios for any foliar feeding insect pest species of any crop and consequent yield loss.

Selected technologies for sorghum protection to reduce pest losses under rain fed conditions in Gedarif State, Sudan
E. Suliman, H Salman, I. Ali, L. Yousif
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Sorghum is attacked by various field pests throughout its growth stages and has been described by different workers. Different insect pests species were listed; Soil diseases and different weeds also recorded. The most serious is probably the central shootfly, Atherigona soccata (Rondani), head covered smut, Sphacelotheca sorghi and Striga hermenthica. The experiments were conducted at Northern area, Gedarif State, viz., University Farm (Twawa) during the 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 seasons. The objective of this research is to test selective technologies for reducing field pests losses on dry land sorghum. The sorghum varieties Wad Ahmed (late maturing) and Arfa Gadamak (early maturing) were sown. Gaucho 70 WS and Raxil 2 WS insecticides seed-dressings for controlling Covered smut and central shootfly control. Two selective herbicides for controlling broad leaves weeds e.g., (2.4.D and Glean) were applied to control Striga hermenthica and other broad leave weeds. Hand weeding was carried out two times on for sub-plots viz., untreated control. Urea fertilizer 1N was applied during sowing time. Regular surveys were carried out weekly after crop emergence to record pest damage and insect population, where 25 plants of sorghum were randomly selected from each plot and the numbers of dead-heart caused by the larvae of A. soccata were assessed. Mean number of weed/m2 and % weed ground cover 4 weeks after sowing also recorded. During the harvest time disease incidence and yield were recorded. Results obtained on mean number of dead heart recorded on Arfa Gadamak variety significantly different between treatments when compared with untreated control. Treatments treated with Raxil 2 WS and Gaucho 70 WS did not record any dead heart, disease incidence and % damage during the season. Treatment (Hand weeding + Gaucho 70 WS + Raxil 2 WS) recorded lowest % weed ground cover compared with others treatments. The highest yield was obtained by treatment (2.4.D + Glean 75 + Gaucho 70 WS + Raxil 2 WS) (3932.2 Kg/ha.).

Climate change and food production scenarios in the Teknaf Peninsula of Bangladesh
A. Rahman, M. Tani, A. Ullah
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Bangladesh is one of the vulnerable countries to climate change. The coastal area of Bangladesh is more prone to climate change, where agricultural production is low. The Teknaf peninsula is situated in the corner of Bangladesh, where both forest and marine ecosystems are found in a narrow area. High population, poverty, and climate variability are some problems. The aim of this study is to investigate the climate change and food system in the Teknaf peninsula of Bangladesh. Weather data were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department, while agricultural information were collected from the Department of Agricultural Extension. Long-term (1984-2013) weather data shows that annual rainfall (around 4000 mm) does not change remarkably, but its distribution has been changed. Therefore, frequent drought is being observed. According to land distribution data, drought is a common event that covers 23% of landmass.

Climate change and variability, and farmers’ response in Saurashtra Region of Gujarat, India
R. Jat, M. Chopda, R. Mathukia
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The Saurashtra region of Gujarat, India comes under a typical arid and semiarid type of climate. Groundnut-wheat is the major cropping system followed in the region. Farmers in the region were surveyed to ascertain the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies. The survey revealed that the farmers in the region are well aware about the changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in the region over a period of time. Realizing the crop losses due to changing rainfall and temperature pattern a regular phenomenon, the farmers have started to adapt by following various coping strategies like-- harvesting of rain water through check dams (with community efforts and the help of developmental agencies) and open wells (individual farmers); use of micro irrigation systems for supplementary irrigation; frequent interculturing to reduce moisture losses through evaporation and weeds; use of growth retardants; growing groundnut as a climate resilient crop during rainy season; intercropping; diversifying crops; introducing pigeonpea as a strategic relay crop in groundnut; changing crop geometry; use of responsive varieties; furrow irrigation to establish wide spaced crops (e.g., cotton); mulching, farm mechanization for timely field operations, diversifying with other farm enterprises like cattle farming and agro-forestry, etc. In the last couple of years, as an adaptation strategy, farmers are widely shifting to underground PVC irrigation pipes from unpaved surface irrigation channels to reduce conveyance losses of water. Many farmers are following paired row system (two or three rows most common) in groundnut to facilitate interculturing, conserve rain water, and introduce relay crop of pigeonpea or castor. Diversification, putting area under different crops like groundnut, cotton, castor, cereals. etc. during rainy season, and wheat, coriander, cumin etc. during winter season, has been identified by farmers as an important strategy to reduce climate variability and market fluctuations related losses.

Farmers’ willingness to adopt intercrops for soil fertility management in the Lake Victoria Crescent Agro-Ecological Zone (LVCAEZ) of Uganda
B. Kyampeire, R. Kabanyoro, I. Mugisa
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Intercropping, particularly with legumes, is a food security and soil fertility management strategy of small-holder, resource-poor farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the extent of and factors affecting farmer’s willingness to adopt intercropping practices is central to decisions to promote this practice. We assessed the socio-economic factors affecting the farmer’s choice to adopt an emerging rice intercrop technology in the Lake Victoria Crescent Agro-ecological Zone (LVCAZ) of Uganda. A household survey was conducted with 171 rice farmers in Kiboga, Kayunga and Luwero districts. Logistic regression analysis was used to model the willingness of farmers to adopt the rice intercrops. Results show that approximately 60% of the farmers are willing to adopt the practice. The willingness to adopt is higher with higher level of education of household heads, contact with extension agents and training, ease of access to rice seed and membership to farmer groups. On the other hand, farmer experience with rice cultivation negatively affects willingness to adopt the technology. The implication of our findings is that extension agents, especially the National Agricultural Advisory Services, should work with farmer groups to create awareness of the benefits of rice intercrops, link them with research institutions such as the National Agricultural Research Organization to enable them access seed. The Participatory Market Chain Approaches that have already shown success in potato value chains should be promoted so that commercial rice farmers have alternative markets for secondary crops from the intercrops. Further studies into the economic and social and environmental benefits of these practices are required to shed light on their sustainability.

Integrated technologies for sorghum-legume production system to improve livelihood and adaption to climate change in Gedarif State, Sudan
E. Suliman, A. Mohamed, D. Dawoud, O. Elhassan, S.Salih, A. Yagoub
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Sorghum, grown as a single crop by large scale farmers, is sometimes inter-cropped with legumes by small scale farmers to provide the protein that supplements carbohydrates and starch in sorghum. Rural families derive food, animal feed, cash and other benefits including improved soil fertility through in situ decay of root residues and legume leaves. Field work was conducted at 6 environmental zone locations: Northern (dry area), Central (semi-dry area) and Southern (wet area) in Gedarif State during 2011/2012 and 2012/2013. Production technologies were evaluated by (1) improved sorghum variety (AG8 for low rainfall areas and Wad Ahmed for relatively high rainfall areas), (2) intercropping with legume (cowpea for low rainfall areas and groundnuts for relatively high rainfall areas), (3) water harvested by cross ridging against the slope and tied to ridges every 10 m, and (4) low micro dose of nitrogen fertilizer (15 kg urea/ha applied with the seeds at sowing). These improved production techniques were compared with farmer practices and showed excellent performance on grain yield and forage (increased sorghum, cow pea, and groundnuts), resulting in improved productivity in the whole semiarid system. Sorghum grain yield increased to 2500 kg/ ha in the southern area compared with traditional farmers (500 kg/ha), in the central area, sorghum productivity increased to 1728 kg/ha compared with traditional farmers production (225 kg/ha), and in the northern area productivity of sorghum crop increased from 180 kg/ha to 1080 kg/ha. Data recorded on sorghum Stover yield was significantly different between production technologies and traditional farmer’s practices (17.5, 10.8 and 6.7 ton/ha) in southern, central and northern areas, respectively. Groundnuts and cowpea recorded the highest yield compared to traditional farmers yield (1500 and 1152 kg/ha) and 500 and 432 kg/ha, respectively.

Subsoil accessibility and nutrient availability in three rainfall zones in the Pacific Northwest
I. Madsen, M. Reese, T. Beard, T. Maaz, L. Port, M. Nunez, J. Huettenmoser, W. Pan
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A greater focus on the availability of subsoil resources will became increasingly important to crop production as climate change leads to warmer drier summers and wetter winters. Crop species, root architecture, and soil impedance to root growth are important factors that influence the ability of crops to access and take up nutrients from deep in the profile. Water drawdown data in soil profiles was collected in conjunction with field trials at different rainfall locations across the Inland Pacific Northwest. A significant portion of total water use occurred during the spring regrowth of winter canola (90% in low and 75% in intermediate precipitation zones). Drawdown occurred throughout the entire 5 foot profile, with more than 50% reduction of total water content in 3-5 feet between March and harvest. Soil pits were dug in mature canola fields in three distinct precipitation zones, within which root densities, soil physical characteristics, and nutrient profiles were spatially recorded. A restrictive layer characterized by high bulk density, resistance, and silt content was observed in the lowest rainfall zone. At all sites, more than 65% of roots were distributed in the subsoil beneath the first visual pan layer. Root density was strongly and positively spatially correlated with K and OM, but strongly and negatively spatially correlated with Na, Mg, EC, and Ca. The relationship between root density and nutrient distribution is an important factor when assessing late season nutrient availability. Our findings highlight the importance of subsoil quality and accessibility across different rainfall zones within a changing climate.

The impact of water, soil fertility and conservation on sustainable cereal production in the dryland region of the Inland Pacific Northwest
R. Mahler, J.D. Wulfhorst, S. Eigenbrode
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Five surveys conducted between 1997 and 2014 have evaluated grower attitudes and perceptions toward water use, soil fertility and conservation practices in the Inland Pacific Northwest. In general growers equate the surveyed attitudes and practices to sustainable cereal production. Most farmers support both water conservation and soil conservation practices. More than two thirds of growers have actively implemented these practices in significant components of their production systems.

Warming effects on soil carbon and nitrogen mineralization in dryland cropping systems in the Pacific Northwest
R. Ghimire, P. Bista, S. Machado
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Climate change will influence soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) dynamics through their effects on mineralizable and easily decomposable fractions of soil organic matter (SOM). We evaluated the effects of soil warming on SOC and N mineralization in a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-based production systems in the Pendleton long-term experiments (PLTEs). Soil samples were collected from 0- to 10-cm and 10- to 20-cm depths of selected treatments of crop residue, tillage fertility, and wheat-pea LTEs established in 1931, 1941, and 1964, respectively. Undisturbed grassland, which has not been cultivated since 1931 was considered as a reference for these comparisons. Approximately 20 g soils with moisture at field capacity were incubated in 20°C and 30°C temperature. Soil C and N mineralization was monitored for 10 weeks. Repeated tillage, wheat-fallow system, and warming accelerated soil C and N mineralization. Mineralizable C and N contents were greater under reduced- and no-tillage systems than under the conventional system. Reducing or eliminating fallow through maintenance of perennial grasses and wheat – pea (Pisum sativum L.) rotation can increase SOC accumulation. Increasing nutrient supply through manure and N fertilizer addition can complement to the effects of reduced and no-tillage management to improve SOC and N accumulation and improve sustainability of winter wheat-based production systems in the Pacific Northwest in the projected climate change.

CropSyst-Microbasin model as a tool to inform variablerate nitrogen management and dryland farm profitability
N. Ward, F. Maureira, E. Brooks, M. Yourek, C. Stöckle
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Precision fertilizer management is a promising method to maintain high agricultural yields while using less fertilizer inputs in the highly heterogeneous Palouse region. This study assessed the use of CropSyst-Microbasin at a tool to inform fertilizer management practices. A highly-instrumented field site was used to parameterize CropSyst-Microbasin. The model accurately simulated spatial and temporal changes in soil water content, total surface runoff, and average crop yield. Fertilizer management scenarios were conducted with an analysis of total nitrogen loss, crop yield, and farm profitability. Simulated yields were analyzed with local costs of production and varying crop, fertilizer, and fuel costs to examine the sensitivity of profitable fertilizer management to varying market conditions. Hillslope scenarios demonstrate the capacity of CropSyst-Microbasin to simulate the contribution of lateral redistribution of nitrogen to down-slope yields. Field catchment (roughly 10 hectare) simulations demonstrate the unique capacity of CropSyst-Microbasin to simulate agricultural production on highly heterogeneous landscapes, capturing spatial and temporal variability. Simulations and field sites were examined in conjunction with other types of production measurements, such as NDRE-based N uptake predictions, to explore field-scale spatial and temporal drivers of production and risk to inform precision fertilizer management on the Palouse.

Optimal estimation of phonological crop model parameters for rice (Oryza sativa)
H. Sharifi, R. Hijmans, M. Espe, B. Linquist
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Crop phenology models are important components of crop growth models. Typically only a few parameters of phenology models are calibrated and default cardinal temperatures are used which can lead to a temperature-dependent systematic phenology prediction error. Our objective was to evaluate different optimization approaches in the Oryza2000 and CERES-Rice phenology submodels to assess the importance of optimizing cardinal temperatures on model performance and systematic error. We used two optimization approaches: the typical single-stage (planting to heading) and three-stage model optimization (for planting to panicle initiation, panicle initiation to heading, and heading to physiological maturity) to simultaneously optimize all model parameters. Data for this study were collected over three years and six locations on seven California rice cultivars. A temperature-dependent systematic error was found for all cultivars and stages, however it was generally small (systematic error < 2.2). Both optimization approaches in both models resulted in only small changes in cardinal temperature relative to the default values and thus optimization of cardinal temperatures had very small effect on systematic error and model performance. Compared to single stage optimization, three-stage optimization had little effect on determining time to panicle initiation or heading but significantly improved the precision in determining the time from heading to physiological maturity. The RMSE reduced from an average of 6 to 3.3 in Oryza2000 and from 6.6 to 3.8 in CERES-Rice. With regards to systematic error, we found a trade-off between RMSE and systematic error when optimization objective set to minimize RMSE or systematic error. Therefore, it is important to find the limits within which the trade-offs between RMSE and systematic errors are acceptable, especially in climate change studies where this can prevent erroneous conclusions.

Soil organic carbon dynamics in a dryland wheatfallow system: DAYCENT model simulations
P. Bista, S. Machado, R. Ghimire
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Agricultural management practices that contribute to soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration can improve soil health and agricultural sustainability. We used DAYCENT model to simulate the impact of crop residue and nutrient management practices on SOC content, and grain and residue yield in a long-term (80 years) winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-summer fallow (WW-SF) systems in Pendleton, OR. Treatments included fall burning of crop residue (FB0), no burning of cop residue with 0 (NB0), 45 (NB45) and 90 (NB90) kg N ha-1, and addition of cattle manure (MN) and pea vines (PV). Model performance was evaluated by comparing modeled and observed data from 1931 to 2010. The model was reasonably accurate with R2 values of 0.93, 0.95 and 0.99 for the mean of observed and modeled grain yield, residue yield and SOC, respectively. The paired t-test results showed the significant bias between observed and modeled SOC five out of six treatments. The model show highest rate of SOC decrease in FB0 (24.4 g C m-2 yr-1) and an increase in MN (9.69 g C m-2 yr-1) from 1931 to 2010. DAYCENT projected that SOC loss was between 866 to 2192 g C m-2 in different WW-SF systems except MN, where is showed SOC gain of 496 g C m-2 SOC by 2080. However, with conversion to no-tillage from 2011onwards, all treatments are projected to gain SOC. DAYCENT results revealed that conversion to no-till can minimize the SOC loss by 17 to 47% under different treatments besides MN where SOC gain can be increased by more than 300%. Our study suggested adaption of no-tillage system along with addition of organic amendments can increase SOC sequestration, mitigate climate change and improve the long-term sustainability of dryland WW-SF systems.

Uncertainties in the prediction of winter wheat response to climate change with crop-climate models
M. Ahmed, C. Stöckle, R. Nelson, S. Higgans
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Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and yield. Firstly all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated sites in the PNW using 1979 to 2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent under rain fed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050 and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.

Climate change and food security: Bridging the interaction gaps for future integrity
S. Shahin, R. Ajaj, M. Salem
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Climate change and global warming has become a real threat to global food security, by affecting the agricultural capability and productivity. Global population is expected to continue to increase, thus, the world will be facing a food and hunger crisis. Food-insecure populations will be enlarged, especially in low-income countries. The extent and diversity of climate change, make regional longterm strategies for climate change adaptation, mitigation and impact assessment an impossible task in the absence of the cross regional collaboration and international strategic planning. Consequently, there is a crucial need to bridge the interaction gaps between farmers, households, scientists and decision makers, among major hot spots including: climate information services, seasonal forecasting, farming practices, tolerance of emerging pests and diseases, agricultural intensification, action policies and integrated research projects. Bridging such gaps is urgently needed in order to guarantee the future global sustainability and integrity.

Developing an agriculturally focused data management system for climate assessment, adaptation, and mitigation: regional approaches to climate change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCHPNA)
E. Seamon, P. Gessler, E. Flathers, L. Sheneman
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Over the course of the last five years, the REACCHPNA data management effort, a cyberinfrastructure component of REACCHPNA, a USDA funded coordinated agricultural project (USDA Award #2011- 68002-30191), has had a focus to develop modular, sustainable, and extensible systems/processes that would allow for the collection, storing, and analyzing of REACCH-related data and content. In support of this strategy we have built out four core systems to implement this approach. Our portal; REACCH data and analysis libraries for data discovery, analysis, and metatagging; a THREDDS data catalog, for climate data subsetting and aggregation; and an interactive python notebook server, to facilitate collaborative data science efforts. Supporting these four core areas is a developed architecture that includes a three-tier server environment (data, applications, web), a metadata cataloging server (a customized version of ESRI’s Geoportal Server), a geospatial web server environment for web mapping services (ArcGIS Server), and a geospatial enterprise database (PostgresQL) all interconnected to an LDAP server for unified user logins across systems. In addition, all data is replicated/mirrored at Idaho National Laboratories (INL). Preliminary results of the data management complication include over 1000 discrete data entries (data, surveys, publications), with approximately 30 map services outputting dynamic, REST-enabled urls. In addition, over 40TB of climate data has been assembled for aggregation and subsetting purposes, that can be integrated with other non-raster based data thru REST and javascript applications.

Implementing a free, open-source data repository to support distributed interdisciplinary science
E. Flathers, P. Gessler, E. Seamon
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The science data management system as a framework for collaboration and integration is a relatively new tool in the interdisciplinary project toolbox. Historically, these repository systems have been established as silos: each research lab might establish their own, proprietary model for data management with little effort at interoperability. With the emergence of open standards for data organization and data access services, repositories can be linked across labs, institutions, and disciplines across the world to help enable a new, open science based upon data sharing and remote collaboration. In the past, one of our challenges with monolithic, prepackaged data management solutions is that customization can be difficult to implement and maintain, especially as new versions of the software are released that are incompatible with our local codebase. Our solution is to break the monolith up into its constituent parts, which offers us several advantages. First, any customizations that we make are likely to fall into areas that can be accessed through Application Program Interfaces (API) that are likely to remain stable over time, so our code stays compatible. Second, as components become obsolete or insufficient to meet new demands that arise, we can replace the individual components with minimal effect on the rest of the infrastructure, causing less disruption to operations. The modular approach also leads to other advantages in both IT and science goals for the repository. In this poster, we illustrate our application of the Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) design paradigm to assemble a data repository that conforms to the Open Archival Information System (OAIS) Reference Model primarily using a collection of free and open-source software. We detail the design and implementation of the repository, based upon common preservation practice and open standards that support interoperability with other institutions systems and with future versions of our own software components.

Are seed banks a viable option for drought risk management in South Asia?
A. Chhetri, P. Aggarwal, S. Sehgal
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Drought is a primary constraint for cereal production systems in South Asia, where more than 60% of agricultural land is rain fed. Any prolonged drought event can severely impact agricultural production and food security. Seed banks can serve as emergency seed supply systems when farmers face a shortage of seeds due to failure of crops as a result of extreme climatic events such as floods and droughts. Maintenance of seed banks where extreme climatic events frequently occur could help farmers to establish crops quickly in the same season or the next season in case crops are destroyed. Research is needed in terms of (a) how much agricultural areas would have the requirement of seed banks, (b) what would be the return period for use of seed from such banks, (c) which crop’s seed and varieties should be stored in a given location, and (d) will maintenance of seed bank be economically viable. Our study used a multi-disciplinary research methodology involving subjects of climatology, GIS, agronomy and economics for three distinct activities. This study indicates that the maximum frequency of seed bank requirement under any scenario is 15- 20%, i.e., seed bank is required once in 5 to 7 years. About 90% of the study grids may require seed banks once in 15 years or more. The maximum number of grids which may require seed banks once in 5-7 years for climate risk preparedness lies in India. Afghanistan, Bhutan and Nepal may not require seed banks. The choice of main crops and/or alternate crops seeds for storage in the seed bank depends on agro-ecological conditions and timing and length of drought during the cropping season. In the areas with prolonged drought after few weeks of crop sowing, seed banks may require to established alternate crops on revival of rainfall.

Drought impact on rice production in northwest region of Bangladesh
A. Rahmam, M. Tani
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Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Though most parts of Bangladesh are more or less prone to adverse impacts of climate change, the northwest region is particularly sensitive because of prolonged drought conditions. With climate change, more area would be exposed to severe droughts because of projected change in rainfall pattern and dry spell frequencies. Bangladesh is an agricultural country and rice is the main crop, which requires large amounts of water. The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal drought condition and its impact on rice production in the northwest region, which is considered a drought prone area. Long-term rainfall (1964-2011) data was collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Data on the area and production were collected from the Department of Agricultural Extension. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is widely used as a direct approach in comparison with other drought indices because of its simple and useful application. Long-term data showed a decreasing trend of rainfall, which were 1.64, 1.60 and 0.38 mm for aus, aman and boro rice seasons, respectively. The SPI values indicate frequent drought in recent years, particularly during boro season. It was observed that seasonal drought was responsible for yield loss by 18, 21 and 11% during aman, aus and boro seasons respectively. Drought during aus and aman seasons hamper rice production as those rice seasons are rain fed. On the contrary, drought during boro season increases the dependency on creating environmental problems, increasing production cost and decreasing food quality by contamination heavy metals. Suitable technologies and varieties should be introduced to sustain the rice production in northwest part of Bangladesh under changing climate.

Impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture through water rights curtailment
K. Rajagopalan, K. Chinnayakanahalli, G. Yorgey, M. Brady, C. Stöckle, J. Adam
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Irrigated agriculture is impacted by climate change both directly and indirectly. Warmer temperatures and elevated CO2 levels directly impact the plant growth cycle and potential crop yields. In addition to this, indirect effects include factors such as changes in water availability for irrigation, particularly in snowmelt dominated regions. This is especially relevant in regions that exercise irrigation water rights curtailment in times of shortages, e.g., to maintain environmental flows. The relative magnitudes and directions of both the direct and indirect effects will determine the net impact climate change has on agricultural production in such regions. We examine the indirect impacts of climate change in the 2030s on irrigated agricultural production in the Washington state part of the Columbia River Basin, using a coupled crop-hydrology model in conjunction with a water management model that includes an approximation of water rights curtailment in the region. The indirect effects are also considered relative to the direct impacts of climate change on agricultural production. Results indicate that although future curtailment rates are expected to be higher than historical conditions, the effects of curtailment on crop yields are not correspondingly larger in the future. Impacts are crop dependent and depend on the timing of curtailment in relation to crop growth stage. Earlier onset of crops and accelerated growing degree day accumulation under warmer future climate alter the crop growth cycle leading to interesting impacts of curtailment on agricultural production.

Implications of wetter and warmer future climates on the soil water availability in the Palouse
E. Brooks, N. Ward, A. Wardall
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With climate models suggesting that winter precipitation totals may increase by as much 75 mm (3 inches) by the latter half of the 21st century, there is the potential for major changes in the way cropping systems are managed in the dryland grain producing regions of the Pacific Northwest. Drier, warmer summers lead to earlier plant dates and rapid drying however wetter winters provide greater offseason soil water recharge potentially providing greater availability of soil water to dryland crops. In this project we examine the impacts of future climates at three climate zones within the Pacific Northwest and demonstrate the positive and negative effects of increased precipitation and temperature on future cropping systems. Crop modeling results suggest that the increase in precipitation in some areas will lead to a net increase in spring soil water, potentially increasing the portion of the region implementing annual cropping, despite overall warming temperatures which suggest increased fallow practices. This analysis implies that the impact of climate change on the cropping systems in the Palouse region will be more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to air temperature. Assumptions of this approach and future implications of these analysis will be discussed.

Simulating optimal productivity for winter wheat under variable soil moisture regimes for Pacific Northwest USA
A. Misra, C. Stöckle, B. Govindan
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Irrigation water requirements are considered the most important limiting factor for efficient use of water resources and optimizing the crop yield under changing future climatic conditions. Scarce and uncertain information exists on soil water availability into the future for any region and hence crop simulation modeling can be an efficient and cost effective technique to estimate the crop irrigation water requirement. We identified four locations viz., George, Sunnyside, Othello and Imbler having at least 12 years of daily weather data from the Inland Pacific Northwest region of the USA during the winter wheat growing season. Amounts of average rainfall during the cropping season in these locations ranged from 197.53 mm to 378.85 mm. A calibrated and validated CropSyst model for these locations was run for winter wheat to develop response curves of leaf area index (LAI), biomass production and yield for different irrigation levels. The crop production function (CPF) allowed simulating irrigation events as a function of soil water level ranging from a completely rain fed to a fully irrigated scenario. Simulation outputs suggest optimal crop productivity at 60% soil water level in locations with high rainfall viz. Othello and Imbler. No significant increase in grain yield and biomass were observed at high rain fall locations with further enhancement in irrigation water levels. In contrast, in low rain fall sites viz. Sunnyside and George, crop productivity was optimized only when 80% or more soil water level was provisioned.

Developing heat tolerant and climate resilient wheat
K. Gill, A. Mohan
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Climate change, particularly the heat stress, poses a serious challenge to the wheat production, which needs to double by 2050 in order to meet the food demand of the growing population. Every 1°C rise in temperature above the optimal results in wheat yield losses of up to 3-4%. By the end of the 21st century, global annual mean temperature, including South Asia, is projected to go up by 4°C, thus adversely affecting the wheat production in most of fertile Indo-Gangetic plains. Therefore, improving wheat heat tolerance is crucial in today’s context. As a public-private partnership, ‘Feed the Future Innovation Lab’ has been setup with the funding from USAID, DBT, ICAR, and BIRAC with a goal to develop climate resilient wheat cultivars by combining all available information, tools, and technologies. Evaluation of heat tolerant material from around the globe both under controlled as well as field conditions showed extensive natural variation for the trait, although, only few lines maintained ‘normal’ productivity at 30°C. A short period of heat stress during germination had serious and long-term effect on plant development and yield. A ten-day heat stress at germination reduced germination percentage, coleoptile length, and yield. Sugars availability maybe a reason for the effect on germination as external application of sucrose showed significant recovery in germination percentage and coleoptile length. Heat stress during vegetative phase significantly affected tiller number, flowering time, pollen fertility, plant height and yield. During the reproductive stage, heat stress adversely affected photosynthesis and increased membrane disintegration due to decreased chlorophyll index, increased ROS and lipid peroxidase activity. The identified heat tolerant lines will be used to transfer the trait into wheat cultivars by marker assisted background selection combined with simultaneous detection and utilization of QTLs. Various molecular and physiological studies for the trait are underway and an update will be presented.

Nitrous oxide response to nitrogen fertilizer in irrigated spring wheat in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico
N. Millar, K. Khamark, A. Urrea, P. Robertson, I. Ortiz-Monasterio
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The Yaqui Valley, one of Mexico’s major breadbaskets, encompasses 225,000 hectares of cultivated, irrigated cropland, up to 75% of which is planted to spring wheat annually. Nitrogen (N) fertilizer applications to this crop have nearly doubled since the 1980s, and currently average around 300 kg N ha-1. A substantial component of total production costs, these rates also result in significant N losses to the environment via leaching and gaseous emissions. Nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) is produced naturally by microbial denitrification and nitrification. Emissions increase following soil management activities, especially fertilizer N application, and particularly when this input exceeds crop requirement. Our major objectives are to 1) investigate tradeoffs between fertilizer N input, spring wheat yield, and N2Oemissions, to inform management strategies that can mitigate N2O emissions without compromising productivity and economic return, and 2) explore opportunities for farmers to take advantage of global carbon markets, and generate income from improved N management practices they adopt. Manual chambers were used to observe N2O fluxes from spring wheat at five N inputs (0, 80, 160, 240, and 280 kg N ha-1) during two growing seasons at CIMMYT in Ciudad Obregon, Sonora, Mexico. Average daily N2O fluxes were 2.1 to 14.4 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1, with lower emissions at N rates below or close to those that optimized yield, and substantially higher emissions at N rates beyond where yield optimization occurred. The exponential response, consistent with other crops, suggests large decreases in N2O flux are possible with lower N inputs and without negative yield impacts. With fertilizer use patterns in Yaqui Valley a likely gauge for high-productivity irrigated cereal systems elsewhere, our results provide evidence for a win-win-win scenario; large reductions in agricultural GHG emissions, increased farmer income, and maintained or even improved productivity.

REACCH Monitoring objective: Assessing dynamics of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and nitrous oxide at multiple agricultural ecosystems in the Inland Pacific Northwest
B. Lamb, S. Waldo, J. Chi, S. Pressley, P. O’Keeffe
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Local meteorology, crop management practices and site characteristics have important impacts on carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in agricultural ecosystems. Future climate projections for some regions (e.g. Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) of the U.S.) show a likely increase in temperature and significant reductions in precipitation that will affect agricultural carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling. Agriculture is highly dependent on climate, yet it is also a primary contributor of the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Agricultural fields can be net carbon dioxide (CO2) sinks or sources depending on management practices and climatic conditions. Therefore, there is a critical need to quantify greenhouse gases (GHGs) in different agricultural ecosystems to better understand their distribution, cycles, and how they are impacted by ongoing climate change. The REACCH project is investigating the feedbacks between agricultural ecosystems and climate change in the IPNW region by assessing carbon, water, and N2O dynamics in multiple cropping systems using micrometeorological methods. Our team has installed five flux towers at sites representing different agroecological classes across the region that continuously monitor fluxes of CO2, H2O, and energy, totalling eleven site-years of results as of October 2014. Two of the flux towers are also outfitted to monitor N2O emissions, using both micrometeorological methods and an array of automated chambers. We found that all five sites were net CO2 sinks over the measurement period, with cumulative sink strengths ranging from 63 to 326 g C m-2 yr-1. However, the N2O results indicate that emissions are higher than the IPCC Tier 1 estimate, at 3-6 kg N2O-N ha-1 yr-1.

Rotational nitrogen and water use efficiencies in intensified and diversified cropping systems across the precipitation gradient of Eastern Washington
T. Maaz, L. Port, W. Pan, I. Madsen, F. Young, A. Esser
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Rotational estimates of nitrogen (N) and water use are needed to assess the impacts of rotational designs as long-term strategies to improve efficiencies. Typically, nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and water use efficiency (WUE) are calculated for a single season rather than across multiple years, which ignore potential carry-over from one season to the next. We constructed N and water balances across the precipitation gradient of Eastern WA (including the irrigation, low, intermediate, and high rainfall zones) to (1) quantify unaccounted for N and rotational NUE and (2) determine differences in water use with crop intensification and diversification across the region. In an integrated regional study, we found higher N recoveries than reported in literature in the low rainfall zones, even with continuous cropping in grain-fallow region. Because of higher inputs in the intensified rotations, improvements can be still made to reduce unaccounted for N. Nitrogen carry-over from fertilizer and cover crops to subsequent crops was observed across the region, which demonstrates the importance of crop rotation and fertilization. Subsoil storage and extraction are essential for overall efficiencies of water and N, thus illustrating the need for routine testing and accounting of subsoil N and water content.

AgBiz Logic™: An economic, financial and environmental decision tool for farmers, ranchers and land managers
C. Seavert, L. Houston, J. Way, S. Capalbo
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The Earth’s climate is warming and will continue to warm throughout the next century. This has the potential to affect agriculture worldwide both positively (e.g., longer growing seasons) and negatively (e.g., increased heat stress) depending on the commodity (e.g., crop, livestock) and location. This poster presents a decision support tool called AgBiz Logic™ which allows producers to step into the world of 20-30 years from the present and consider how their current enterprises and operations will continue to serve them in the future. Then they can consider if there are any long-range planning decisions they may want to consider in order to maintain profitable operations. AgBiz Logic™ (ABL) is a cutting-edge web application for agribusinesses designed to help agricultural producers make short-, medium- and long-term investment decisions. This unique application is designed to collect, manage and optimize data from a variety of sources, from balance sheets and weather stations to site-specific zones in the field. The robust data lays the foundation for economic, financial, and environmental decision-support tools, which enable agribusiness professionals to make optimal choices that impact their bottom-line and environmental impacts. A unique component of AgBiz Logic™ is AgBizClimate™, an application that provides near-term climate change projections for average weather conditions relevant to agricultural commodities in a specific region. This tool allows producers to adjust their investments, commodities, and yields based on how they think such changes will affect their particular production process.

Assessment of climate change on trend of maize (Zea mays) yield in southwestern Nigeria
F. Oni, T. Odekunle
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Maize is the most important cereal crop in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and an important staple food. Africa produces 6.5% of maize worldwide and the largest African producer is Nigeria with nearly 8 million tons, followed by South Africa, however, most maize production in Africa is rain fed. Thus, formulating practical, affordable and acceptable response strategies for maize production in Nigeria requires a study that evaluates the impacts of climate change on maize under varying climatic conditions over a period of twenty years in the southwestern Nigeria. Yield data of maize for twenty years (1983-2003) was sourced from the International Agricultural, Research and Teaching (IAR&T) Institute, Ibadan, Oyo state, Nigeria. Corresponding climatic data (minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and rainfall) for the period was obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Oshodi, Nigeria. The data set was smoothened and adjusted for appropriate statistical analysis to generate a model that could be adopted for seasonal planning and future yield optimization of Zea mays in the region. Keywords: Zea mays, climate change, yield optimization, southwestern Nigeria.

Climate change impacts and adaption of Pacific Northwest wheat systems
J. Antle, E. Mu, H. Zhang, C. Stöckle
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This study examines how wheat production systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest respond, and maybe adapt, to climate change, under plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. The analysis combines future climate and socio-economic scenarios with results of crop model simulations in an economic assessment model called TOA-MD. This model is used to average the impacts of climate change on the economic vulnerability of wheat producing farms, and how this vulnerability can be reduced through cropping system and management adaptations. Results show that the average impact of climate change is likely to be positive in this region but due to the heterogeneity of the wheat production system across farms under future climate conditions, a substantial proportion of farms could still be vulnerable to losses from climate change due to variations in weather, biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Secondly; while there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with climate change and with future scenarios, it is clear that the overall impact as well as the degree of vulnerability will depend substantially on future socioeconomic conditions as well as climate change and farmers adaptation strategies.

Cover crops and drought: Implications for climate resilience
M. Hunter, D. Mortensen
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Cover crops are a potential climate adaptation tool, helping buffer soils against degradation during extreme precipitation events. However, it is less clear how cover crops will interact with drought, another projected effect of climate change. Therefore, it is important to consider potential cover crop impacts on cash crop drought physiology. I report results from two years of a field study investigating maize (Zea mays) responses to drought imposed following a functionally diverse set of cover crop treatments. Maize was grown in rotation with soybean (Glycine max) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) in a full-till organically managed system in central Pennsylvania. I am testing the following hypothesis: Cover crops affect the following cash crop’s physiological responses to drought by a) transpiring soil water in the spring and b) altering nitrogen cycling and availability during the cash crop window. Preliminary results indicate that cover crop transpiration did not affect maize available water due to sufficient spring precipitation. However, cover crop effects on nitrogen (N) availability exerted strong control over maize drought responses. An ANCOVA with early-season chlorophyll meter readings and drought treatment explains 74% of the variation in kernel yield for year 1 (p < 0.001). Cover crops with higher C:N ratio biomass exacerbated corn drought stress due to N immobilization, while cover crops with lower C:N ratios mitigated drought stress due to N mineralization. These results have implications for cover cropping and N management strategies under climate change.

Creating a framework to assess climate change impacts on agriculture and transportation in the Upper Mississippi River Valley
M. Miller, D. Vimont, A. Morales, J. Camp
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A reoccurring challenge with increasing fuel prices is optimization of multi- and inter-modal freight transport to move products most efficiently. The experience of supply chain actors, projections for the future of agriculture in the U.S. and regional climate models indicate a shift in warm temperatures northward and potential shift in agricultural growing seasons and conditions for optimized crop yield. We expect to see changes in global markets for commodity crops, as well as national markets for animal feed and biofuels. Conservation challenges, especially due to extreme spring rainfall events and volatile temperature change, may also impact production decisions. This leads to a potential change in how much, where and with what fuel freight will be needed to move these crops in the future. Given recent history, we are already experiencing changes in regional weather trends and growing seasons likely due to climate change and these can be used as indicators of future changes. It would be beneficial for freight carriers to have an awareness of likely farmer and supply chain response to changes, and where and to what extent fleets will be needed to continue export of grains from the upper Midwest to the rest of the U.S. and the world. This project seeks to use recent historical climate, crop information and the input of supply chain actors, combined with regional climate modeling and other tools to project forward the demands on freight transportation for the upper Midwest grain distribution in the future.

Is rain fed wheat productivity vulnerable to climate change?
M. Aslam, M. Ahmed, F. Hassan, R. Hayat, C. Stöckle
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Climate change impacts on crop productivity have threatened global food security. Global climate change continues to be a major concern in this century, and temperature is the main signal of the change on both global and regional scales. Wheat yield might be adversely effected by increase in seasonal temperature. The changing climate is adversely effecting wheat yield in rain fed areas of Pakistan. In the current study three crop simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM and DSSAT) were calibrated to ensure food security. The objective of the model comparison was to examine how different simulation models act at varying climatic locations across Pakistan when given minimal information for model validation and calibration. To calibrate crop models, the field experiment was carried out at three varying climatic conditions (high, medium and low rainfall) of Pothwar, Pakistan. The field experiment was laid out using RCBD four way factorial design. The treatments were four sowing times (21 Oct, 11 Nov, 1st Dec and 21 Dec), three varying climatic locations (Islamabad, Koont and Talagang), five wheat genotypes (NARC-2009, AUR-809, Pak-13, Chakwal-50 and Dhurabi) and the experiment was repeated for two years (2013-14 and 2014-15). The results showed that models performed very well for all study parameters. Highest grain yield (4.050 t/ha) recorded at Islamabad (High rainfall and low temperature) under optimum sowing time during second growing season while lowest grain yield recorded at Talagang (low rainfall and high temperature) under late sowing (1.28 t/ha). Less wheat yield production was a clear evidence of vulnerability of wheat crop to climate change. Meanwhile, models simulated results will be compared with observed data to utilized crop models as decision support tools for rain fed wheat production in Pakistan. Furthermore scenario analysis will also be conducted to design adaptation strategies for wheat crop in the context of climate variability.

Physiological characteristics and yield improvement by Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus in wheat under terminal warm environment
K. Sharma, R. Gera, J. Singh

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are ubiquitous root symbionts of more than 90% of vascular plants and are thought to contribute to plant nutrition, particularly phosphorus. The field experiment was conducted at CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar. The experiment was designed in a split plot, with wheat genotypes, WH 1021, WH 1105, WH 1123, WH 1124, WH 1158 in main plots and seed treatment practices i.e., dry seeding, primed seed (seed soaking overnight in water), primed seed + AM fungi (Glomus mosseae), primed seed + Azotobacter in the sub plots with three replications under late sown situation. Glomus mosseae was introduced in the soil, and the crop seeds were also inoculated with the fungi before seeding. The crop was planted after a presowing irrigation, and four post sowing irrigations were applied. Physiological characters, canopy temperature depression, membrane thermo stability and rates of photosynthesis of flag leaves were measured after anthesis. Yield-attributes and yields were recorded at harvest. The sowing of wheat genotypes with water primed and primed seed inoculated with AM fungi and Azotobacter increased grain yields by 2.4, 8.1 and 3.8 % respectively over conventional practice (3998 kg/ ha) under late sown condition. The yield gains were mainly due to early seedling emergence and vigour, more numbers of spikes per plant and higher biomass and improved physiological traits like higher membrane stability and photosynthetic efficiency of flag leaf during anthesis. Among the genotypes, WH 1105 followed by WH 1158 showed significantly higher yield (4315 and 4278 kg/ ha) respectively over the other tested genotypes/varieties due to higher membrane stability, more tillering and test weight. The increase in seed yield by seed priming and AM fungi was positively associated with days to emergence and heading, membrane stability and photosynthetic rate.

The impacts of climate changes on agriculture and patterns of human migration in Gedarif State, Eastern Sudan
E. Suliman, K. Ali, H. Salman, N. Elhag

The experiments were conducted in Gedarif State, Eastern Sudan to study the impact of climate change on human migration in Eastern Sudan during the period 2008-2014. The results showed that the productivity of sorghum has decreased in the southern parts of the state from 1500 kg/ ha in the 1970s to less than 410.4 kg/ha at the present time (2014). Additionally, sesame crop productivity has decreased from 1750 kg/ha to 278.4 kg/ha in 2014. In the northern parts of the State, sorghum production has decreased from 1050 kg/ha in the 1970s to 425 kg/ha in 2013. Increasing rates of out-migration from the region to the city of Gedarif and other cities in Sudan has increased rapidly. Immigration to the region has declined and the rate of annual population growth in the region has also declined, from 5.3% from 1983-1993 to 1.2% from 1993-2013. Populations may be migrating because the upper portions of the soil were removed by wind and water runoff (reducing soil productivity and food production sustainability) and deposited in the low lands. Additionally, increasing proportions of sand, especially in the northern parts, and increasing loss of surface water (excavations - rivers - coves - Maat) by evaporation were observed. Other factors recorded that could account for this change include imbalance in values and social systems and high crime rates. The conflicts between residents, farmers, pastoralists and invading nomads from Ethiopia and Eritrea were also recorded.

The impact of climate change on water and nitrogen deficits for maize production in East and Southern Africa
G. Alagarswamy, J. Olson, J. Andersen, N. Moore, J. Maitima, W. Otim-Nape, P. Thornton, P. Yanda
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Warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are expected to affect productivity of maize, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where water and nitrogen deficits already severely restrict harvests. This study examines impact of climate change on water and nitrogen deficits for maize productivity across East and Southern Africa, and tests the potential of management practices. The study region ranges from near-deserts in northern Kenya to savannas in Tanzania and Uganda, and extremely humid areas in Zambia. Coupled climate and the CERES Maize model embedded in DSSAT v. 4.0 were calibrated for the region, and point and spatial modeling were conducted using locally grown maize varieties. Historical climate data sets (observed, CHIRPS and WorldClim) and four GCMs downscaled to 6 km were used. Results include maps of where water and nitrogen deficits are expected to change, and potential benefits of management practices. Climate change will generally reduce yields due to warmer temperatures and higher water demand. However the study identified dry locations that will still have moderate temperatures and where lowering water deficits would have large yield benefits. Similarly, yield benefits to nitrogen fertilizer are expected to decline across large areas since fertilizer’s ability to raise yields diminishes with higher water deficits. In wet zones, however, negative effects of climate change are related to more severe precipitation events leading to worsening nitrogen leaching. Multiple rather than single doses of nitrogen reduce yield variability and increase yield under these situations.

Tillage and residue retention influences on wheat grain yield and soil moisture content in groundnut-wheat cropping systems in semiarid western India
R. Jat, R. Solanki, N. Jain
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Climate change and variability has emerged as one of the major challenges to agriculture in the semiarid tropics (SAT) of India. A field experiment was initiated during kharif, 2012 to evaluate the effects of three tillage practices viz. conventional tillage (CT), minimum tillage (MT), and zero tillage (ZT); and three residue management practices viz. no residue application (NR), wheat residue application (WR), and wheat residue application+Cassia tora mulch (WCR) on moisture availability and yield of wheat in wheat-groundnut cropping system at ICAR-Directorate of Groundnut Research, Junagadh, India. The experiment was laid out in split plot design with three replications. The soil moisture content was measured in 0-15 cm depth at different growth stages of wheat following the gravimetric method during 2013-14 and 2014-15. The wheat grain yield was measured from three strips of 3x5 m each for each treatment plot, and was converted into kg/ha. During 2013-14 CT-NR gave highest grain yield of wheat whereas in 2014-15 ZT-WR gave highest wheat grain yield which was 35.9 % higher compared to CT-NR. The mean data of 2013-14 and 2014-15 revealed that MT-WCR and ZT-WCR had higher soil moisture percentage as compared to CT-WCR and other treatments during wheat growing period, however, difference was significant with CT-NR, MT-NR and ZT-NR only (P<0.05). It indicates that minimum and zero tillage are effective in improving soil moisture content when combined with surface retention of crop residues and other biomass. By outstretching moisture availability over a greater period, minimum and zero tillage along with residue retention, may help to reduce water stress related impacts of climate change and variability on wheat crop, and stabilize/improve yield in semiarid tropical regions of western India.

Thermal regime agronomic experiment
G. Wall, L. Olivieri, M. Conely, K. West, J. Turner, B. Kimball
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Global warming will alter thermal regimes of the Earth’s major cereal grain production regions. Therefore, a need exists to elucidate thermal tolerant mechanisms in cereal grain crops and to what extent genetic controls are available for adaptation. Globally, semiarid desert regions experience some of the widest ranges in high temperatures over the course of a year. So, intra- and interannual variations in natural temperature provide a cost effective means to obtain robust data set for multiple cereal grain crops simultaneously. We intend to stagger planting dates from the normal cropping season in December to be at closer intervals in the April-May time frame to refine crop model thermal response curves at higher temperatures. Experimental artifacts such as photoperiod, soil properties, vapor pressure deficit, precipitation, and solar radiation are unavoidable, and may complicate interpretation of thermal response. Nevertheless, use of day-neutral cultivars without a vernalization requirement will minimize photoperiod effects and ensure floral induction regardless of planting date. Our objectives are: (1) determine cereal grain crop responses to a wide range of air temperature via planting date; (2) quantify crop growth; (3) evaluate and refine thermal response on crop growth and development; (4) validate crop growth models with regard to thermal dependent processes believed to be mediated through canopy energy balance. Study materials include: Wheat (Tritium aestivum L.); Durum Wheat (T. durum L.); Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.); Triticalea (xTriticumSecale) WheatxRye. Overall, 4 replicates of 4 cereal grain crops, over 8 planting dates (4 replicates within a year to determine intra-annual variability), over 2 years (inter-annual variability) will provide 384 differently treated crop responses over an air temperature range from -2 to 42°C. These data will be assembled and formatted in accordance with ICASA Version 2.0 standards, and be distributed to the AgMIP-wheat team for model improvement/validation as deemed appropriate.

Adaptation strategies to combat rice-wheat systems to climate change in Semi-arid subtropical climate of South Asia
N. Subash
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The rice (Oryza sativa L.) -wheat (Trititicumaestivum L.) cropping system is one of the largest agricultural production systems of the South Asia (SA), covering 13.5 million hectares of productive land in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan under diverse agro-climatic situations. This production system is fundamental to employment, income, and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of rural and urban poor of South Asia. Over the past 20 years, rice and wheat production have shown a tremendous increase and remained the major source of the marketed surplus of food grains for feeding the growing urban population; however, in the last decade, both crops are showing signs of stagnation or decline, even with the introduction high yielding varieties/advancement of production technology. Decline in soil fertility, changes in water-table depth, deterioration in the quality of irrigation water, rising salinity, increasing resistance to pesticides, inadequate crop and nutrient management along with occurrence of extreme events at the critical pheno-phase of the crops, climatic variability and climate change are considered as some of the general causes for the yield stagnation/decline. However, with the adaptation of site specific-farmer centric management options, the small and marginal farmers could increase the productivity and thereby secure their food/nutritional requirement and uphold/increase their livelihood.

Based on the AgMIP methodological approach, we have analysed 76 rice-wheat farms in Meerut District, which is part of the Upper Gangetic region of the IGP-India and tried to link climate-crop-socio-economic scenario of location/farmer for integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity. The average family size of the sample households was 6.32, and average operational land holding was 1.68 hectares, which is representative of the district. Rice-wheat and sugarcane-wheat are the predominant cropping systems in the area with livestock being an integrated part of the farming system of sample households. Livestock holding is generally proportional to land holding but majority of the farmers even with tiny land holdings keep at least one milch. Based on the stakeholders interactions at various levels, the adaptation strategies ie., advancement of sowing date during wheat season, use of short duration rice and wheat varieties, balanced fertilizer application in both rice and wheat were suggested. All the GCMS (CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR ) projected increase in max. and min. temperature with greater uncertainty in rainfall. Two crop models DSSAT and APSIM used for impact of climate change on rice-wheat productivity. Decline in mean rice yield ranges from 8% to 23% with APSIM. However, DSSAT simulations shows both decline (4% to 19% under GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR) as well as increase (2% to 5% under CCSM4 and MIROC5). In the case of wheat, APSIM estimates show decline in mean yield (17% to 29%), while DSSAT shows an increase (6% to 15%). The single adaptation strategy of 10-days advancement of sowing in wheat is likely to results in an increase of 10-18.6 % in mean net farm returns during the mid-century 2050s, while the per capita income would increase by 6-11 %. Different adaptation packages and a set of elaborate RAPS visualizing more realistic features of the future agricultural production systems need to be tested to formulate an effective strategy under climate change and for ensuring economic viability and livelihood security of smallholders in the region.

Bioclimatic Predictors of Dryland Agroecological Classes and Projected Shifts under Climate Change
H. Kaur, D. Huggins, R. Rupp, J. Abatzoglou, C. Stockle, J. Reganold
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Climatic variables play an important role in determining the status of dryland agriculture land use. We developed a methodology to delineate the REACCH (Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture) study area into agroecological classes (AECs): three dryland and one irrigated AEC using National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) cropland data-layer of actual land use/cover. The defined AECs were used in different statistical variable selection processes at a 4-km resolution to identify bioclimatic variables that are empirically related to actual land use. Identified bioclimatic predictors were then used to assess changes that would occur in AECs under different future climate change scenarios, given current agricultural production systems. Imposing future climate scenarios on current AECs suggests there will be shifts: (1) from stable to more dynamic AECs with notable increases in the Grain-Fallow AEC; (2) to less area as stable Annual Cropping and Annual Crop-Fallow Transition and with more area as stable Grain-Fallow; and (3) to more area as dynamic Annual Cropping and Grain-Fallow with less area as Annual Crop-Fallow Transition.

Climate and Soil Health in the Inland Pacific Northwest
J. Morrow, D. Huggins
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Mean annual precipitation (MAP) and mean annual temperature (MAT) are critical drivers of soil organic matter (SOM) levels, influencing both above ground productivity and decomposition rates. SOM is critical to many important soil processes, and subsequently an essential consideration when evaluating soil health. Consequently, climate is an important consideration both in monitoring soil health across regional climate gradients, as well as in understanding how future climate scenarios may impact soil health. The objectives of this study were to: (1) identify how MAP and MAT interact with tillage and cropping intensity to determine soil C and N levels; and (2) based on the present day relationship between MAP, MAT and soil C and N properties, project how future climate scenarios might impact SOM, and subsequently soil health. We measured multiple soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) properties across four agricultural sites within the wheat-based cropping region of the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW). The four sites capture a range of tillage and cropping intensities, span a MAP gradient ranging from 288 mm to 668 mm, and a MAT gradient ranging from 8.4oC to 10.3oC. In a multivariate model that included MAT, MAP, as well as tillage and cropping intensity, MAP explained 57% of soil C variability and 69% of total soil N variability. When MAP was removed from the model, MAT became the dominant variable, explaining 42% and 49%, respectively, of soil C and total N variability. Both the acid hydrolyzable and non-hydrolyzable fractions of soil C were equally sensitive to MAP and MAT, indicating no relationship to chemical recalcitrance and climate sensitivity. A present-day climate ratio (MAT/MAP) was significantly correlated with soil C (r = -0.82) and N (r = -0.88) levels. Future climate scenarios for the iPNW translate to an increase in the climate ratio. Utilizing the present day relationship between the climate ratio and soil C and N levels, a reduction in SOM levels across the iPNW under future climate scenarios is predicted. This bolsters the need for management which promotes SOM aggradation to mitigate a decline in soil health.